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Looking ahead: What Super Tuesday means for American Jews, Israel and Bernie Sanders

One of my wife’s cousins, a guy who has spent his life on a kibbutz in northern Israel, telephoned last week to ask what I thought of Sen. Bernie Sanders and former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg.

I have strong reservations about both men, I responded. 

But that’s beside the point, which is: What could I tell him about the two Jews vying for the Democratic presidential nomination (following Super Tuesday it’s now down to one, with Bloomberg having wiped out). Being Israeli, what he really meant was, what did this mean for the Jewish state?

I’ve had permutations of that conversation — on the telephone, via Facebook and in person — with a number of Jews, both American and Israeli, of varying political persuasions. Both the American Jewish press and Israeli news media binged on the Sanders-Bloomberg intra-tribal political slugfest, and I gorged on that as well.

My takeaways?

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Sanders scares the #@*% out of most Israeli Jews and more than a few American Jews. But the latter will likely vote for him anyway should he grab the nomination.

Why? Because priority No. 1 is defeating President Donald Trump in November. (More on this below.)

In this regard, the situation is akin to when many traditional Christians, for whom blocking abortion was the deciding issue, held their collective nose and voted for Trump because they could not abide voting for pro-choice Hillary Clinton. How ironic is that? (And no, I’m not saying Sanders is as bad to my mind as is Trump. Not even close.)

Bloomberg, on the other hand, scared no one, except for Bernie Bros. Personally, I found him arrogant and was made uncomfortable by his attempt, literally, to buy the nomination. The center-right pro-Israel Democratic crowd loved him, though.

(Bloomberg has already endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden, the new Democratic front runner. It will be interesting to see if, should Sanders eventually triumph, whether Bloomberg will back him in the general election simply to try and stop Trump.)

The elite media picked up on the Sanders-Bloomberg story, many of them focusing on Sanders condemnation of the center-right American Israel Public Affairs Committee, (AIPAC), one of American Jewry’s most powerful pro-Israel lobbying groups. This news piece from The Washington Post was typical.

However, to my mind the more interesting writing on the issue — by which I mean Sanders’ unprecedented Democratic presidential campaign criticism of Israel — came in the tidal wave of opinion and analysis columns that flooded Jewish and Israeli media the past week or two. 

(Keep in mind that the pieces cited here were published pre-Super Tuesday. I expect to see an outpouring of “aren’t-we-relieved-by-Biden’s-resurgence” stories and columns in the coming days.)

This is from the Israeli liberal daily Haaretz:

For about a minute last week, it seemed like the traditionally pro-Israel moderates in the Democratic Party were coming to terms with the fact that their least favorite candidate, Senator Bernie Sanders, had all but locked down their party’s presidential nomination.

They appeared to be ceasing their attacks on Sanders in the name of party unity, and because alienating the presumptive nominee – who would be the first Jewish nominee by a major party in U.S. history – wasn’t a wise move.

But the cease-fire proved too fragile to hold.

The bottom-line fear among pro-Israel Democrats, both liberals and moderates, is that Sanders’ repeated attacks against Israeli policies relating to the Palestinian issue embolden anti-Zionists, both in the United States and globally. And that should he actually win the White House, his foreign policy decisions could undermine Israeli security, particularly at a time when anti-Israel and anti-Semitic attitudes are often conflated, and attacks on Jews have risen in the U.S. and, in particular, Europe.

Equally important to Democrats is that younger American Jews, who might be expected to be dependable Democratic voters, are both distancing from Israel and the party because of Sanders constant criticism of Israel and the party’s establishment wing.

Biden actually addressed these points in his own taped address to AIPAC, but in a manner more amenable to a Jewish audience than Sanders ever has.

The still inconclusive (as of this writing) election this week in Israel — in which the (indicted) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have the upper hand to forming a new coalition government in accordance with that nation’s parliamentary system — only heightens the tension around the issue.

Despite all this concern over Sanders, it’s still likely that American Jews will vote for him should he grab the nomination. This recent non-partisan survey lays out why.

Here’s a key point from the survey:

Two-thirds of Jewish voters say they will vote for a generic Democratic candidate over President Trump in the 2020 general election. These numbers are similar to when Trump is pitted against any of the actual Democratic candidates.

And here’s more:

Despite uniform support for every Democratic candidate versus President Trump, Senator Bernie Sanders is a slightly more polarizing figure than his fellow Democratic candidates. Sanders has higher unfavorable ratings among some key subgroups, but he finds strong support among younger Jewish voters. …

Domestic issues, particularly healthcare, Medicare, and Social Security, remain the top issues for Jewish voters. When asked about the issues that are most important when selecting a candidate, Israel remains the lowest priority for Jewish voters…

Similarly, President Trump and the GOP are viewed to some extent as contributing to rising anti-Semitism, and 56% of Jewish voters believe he is at least partially to blame for targeted attacks on synagogues. …

In short, American Jews prioritize their self-interests differently than do Israeli Jews. They really are two distinct populations living in two distinctly different parts of the world, despite their considerable communal bonds. Two-thirds to three-quarters of American Jews have historically voted Democratic in every modern presidential election. Barring the unforeseen, expect it to happen again.

Even if the candidate is Bernie Sanders.