Life is strange. When I chose the “Groundhog Day” graphic for our 2020 election posts, I did so because I was trying to capture the numbing, “here we go again” nature of the day.
I had no idea that the 2020 results — whether President Donald Trump wins or not — would end up resembling the 2016 race to this degree.
Take Florida. As you may know, everyone in cable-news land last night was talking about Florida as the point of a spear — symbolizing the surprising numbers of Hispanics voting for Trump. It turned into one of the stories of the night. This was part of a rise (small, but significant) in Trump voters in a number of different categories linked to race.
According to the exit poll, Trump did better in 2020 with every race and gender except white men.
Change from 2016:
White Men -5
White Women +2
Black Men +4
Black Women +4
Latino Men +3
Latino Women +3
Other +5 pic.twitter.com/hUc17Iy1ip— Matt Bruenig (@MattBruenig) November 4, 2020
Yes, note the Latino numbers. There may be several layers to that story.
For example, if you read GetReligion, then you know that we were convinced that the rise of Latino evangelicals (and Pentecostal believers) was one of the most important stories of the 2016 race, giving Trump crucial votes that put him in the White House.
Cue the “Groundhog Day” clock. Again.
But let’s note that political-beat journalists would have noticed this trend quicker if they had paid attention, not only to GetReligion (#DUH) but to some important religion-beat reporting elsewhere. Remember that New York Times story that we praised recently? See the post with this headline, “New York Times listens to Latino evangelicals: ‘Politically homeless’ voters pushed toward Trump.” That post includes a flashback to my 2016 thoughts on Latino evangelicals in Florida.
If you want more input on that issue, and others, please see this new piece by Clemente Lisi: “Election 2020: 3 Things We Learned About Faith And Voting” (at Religion Unplugged). He noted a crucial fact on the Trump campaign calendar:
It’s true that Latinos in general did help Trump (for example, Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County), the Hispanic evangelical vote mattered, as GetReligion recently pointed out. NBC News exit polling revealed that 55% of the state’s Cuban-American vote went to Trump, while 30% of Puerto Ricans and 48% of “other Latinos” backed the president.
The Latinos for Trump coalition kicked off in June 2019, with the president’s campaign launching “Evangelicals for Trump” from a megachurch in South Florida called El Rey Jesus. It’s the largest evangelical church in the country and with a majority Latino congregation. The move paid off big time for the president.
While the press focuses on the Miami area, it would be wise for national newsrooms (watch for Twitter work by GetReligion contributor Ryan Burge) to pay attention to the “Interstate corridors”) in and around Orlando — a major evangelical megachurch zone.
It seems like Hispanics, especially Hispanic evangelicals are going to be the story tonight.
They are a fascinating group – very conservative on social issues (abortion and gay marriage) and on fiscal policy.
But much more moderate on immigration https://t.co/Xu8j78jDD8
— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) November 4, 2020
Speaking of putting predictions on the record, even if they are not of a religion-beat nature, let me add these two:
(1) Just over a year into Trump’s first term, I began to wonder if he would make it to a second term.
I still believe Joe Biden will win by a fingernail, once the lawsuits are over. And keep your eye on U.S. Supreme Court Justice John Roberts, an ultra-establishment Republican who really seems anxious to avoid being seen as a friend of Trump.
So let me put this prediction on the record. Three years ago, I started telling my students — when I was associated with The King’s College in New York City — that Trump would form his own television network, with one of the hot shows called something like “What I Would Have Done.” This would be a talk-opinion show, of course, and the set would be a recreation of the Trump Oval Office.
I put this on Twitter last night, just to make it official.
Prediction, 2-3 years ago: defeated @realDonaldTrump forms cable channel. Builds own oval office as set for ‘What I Would Have Done’ (or similar title). Considers seeking presidency in ’24. New twist: Works with or replaces @RushLimbaughEIB
— Terry Mattingly (@tweetmattingly) November 4, 2020
(2) I a related move, there was this other prediction — one from a chat with friends during one of the final post-Divine Liturgy coffee hours held at our local St. Anne Orthodox Church, days before the COVID-19 crisis kicked into high gear. I was asked what I thought would happen on Election Day 2020.
Let me stress that this was not linked to a Ruth Bader Ginsburg death wish. I simply had a hunch that her fight with cancer was going to force some kind of move at SCOTUS. Thus:
Just before COVID hit, I told parish friends my hunch: Amy Coney Barrett to SCOTUS, narrow Biden win, GOP hangs on to Senate. I have witnesses.
— Terry Mattingly (@tweetmattingly) November 4, 2020
In terms of other religion and culture angles last night (and on into today), there was this big question: What, pray tell, happened to the pre-election polls? It appears that 99.9% of them were wrong, often shockingly so, and always in the wrong direction (think pro-Democrats).
What is the best explanation for what happened?
Media bias is always a possibility, of course. Consider this blunt moment on MSNBC?
Reprehensible. https://t.co/LSyRu9KaiY
— David French (@DavidAFrench) November 4, 2020
Many other commentators endorsed the concept of the “secret Trump voter” who either refused to cooperate with pollsters on the telephone or, well, lied about their Election Day plays.
But why? Well, Rod “Live Not By Lies” Dreher had a fascinating theory for what is happening, a theory linked to a term from the study of religion. It concerns the term “ketman,” which is usually described the process in which Muslims publicly praise Islam, while privately refusing to practice the teachings of the faith.
What does this have to do with polls before the 2020 election? Dreher believes many Americans , in flyover country in particular, are using a kind of political “ketman” strategy. He explains:
Many people are afraid to tell strangers that they support Trump. Why is that? Because they have eyes to see and ears to hear. They get every single day from the media the message that Trump is wicked, and only bad people support Trump. They have seen in their own workplaces, or reported on media (especially social media), how people who get on the wrong side of the Left lose their jobs, or find themselves treated like outcasts. They know that their support for Trump might someday be used against them. I know this because I have talked to these people myself.
They also recognize that left-wing identity politics has conquered all the institutions of middle-class professional life. If you want to succeed in the corporate world, academia, media, and the rest, you had better be seen as woke — that is, as a supporter of hardline ID pol ideology. Again, I know this in part because I hear from these people all the time, mostly within academia. They are afraid, and they’re right to be afraid.
What does this have to do with religion? Clearly, race is a hot-button topic. However, issues linked to abortion, euthanasia, sexuality, gender and marriage are all tied — for millions of cultural conservatives — to the doctrines at the heart of traditional forms of faith.
Thus, many of these people may be shunning pollsters or lying to them.
A final note: If you follow the Democratic Party efforts among religious groups, you probably knew about the work of Michael Wear. He is best known for his evangelical liaison role in the Barack Obama White House. He is a must follow on Twitter.
Within the past 24 hours or so, he has made two observations that I think religion-beat reporters need to know about. First, there is this point, linked to efforts to find some compromise on abortion laws:
This OH exit poll question on abortion is a good picture of why Democrats’ general approach to the issue since 2014 or so is a political loser: pic.twitter.com/eeH4GiX9lj
— Michael Wear (@MichaelRWear) November 4, 2020
Then there is this fascinating observation about the votes of white evangelicals in this campaign.
This is a topic on which (#DUH) oceans of digital ink will be spilled in the weeks ahead. You see, it does appear that some — the number is not huge, but it’s important — evangelicals may have switched their vote to Biden. Read this carefully:
In MI, where Not Our Faith was active, Biden is winning 31% of white evangelicals according to the Emerson exit poll. AP Votecast has Biden at 22% among white evangelicals. Clinton won 14% of white evangelicals in 2016.
— Michael Wear (@MichaelRWear) November 4, 2020
Now, consider the state of Georgia. If Trump lost any white evangelical voters there, that would be very significant.
So what deserves study in post-election analysis of exit polls and other surveys? I suggest that journalist dig into this niche — suburban white evangelical women. Did many abandon Trump? If Georgia went blue, that would be one of the biggest plot twists in this complicated 2020 drama.
Stay tuned. There are religion stories all over the place, right now.
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